Will "artificial" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 26% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
16 of 1700 launches in the last hour referenced "artificial" (3 distinct creators, rank #26). Last 15m momentum 0.38×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.17447262147085213,
"momentum": -0.9677368658451038,
"diversity": -0.6749999999999999
},
"rawProbability": 0.26228379070950386
},
"features": {
"term": "artificial",
"rank60": 26,
"share15": 0.0036855036855036856,
"share60": 0.009700176366843033,
"total15": 406,
"total60": 1700,
"momentum": 0.37994192539647087,
"diversity": 0.1875,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 16,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 198,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963244444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998468518518518
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.26228379070950386
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0011004687181577339,
"shareRatio": 0.6484580049035212,
"totalAfter": 49070,
"shareBefore": 0.0017009615157457063,
"totalBefore": 42329,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 54,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 72
}Predicted 26% that "artificial" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.17% → 0.11% (-35%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "artificial" (24H). momentum contributed -0.97 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
27e11b2ab6a16702079176193ad3ce7810921f5625c655873f7afa348d95825080243a3d4c1999f303fa563993351a81aaf4f42e3ed2c0fe934b98bfa000637e