GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1952 · narrative · 6H

Will "across" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 26% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1700 launches in the last hour referenced "across" (6 distinct creators, rank #151). Last 15m momentum 0.28×.

Made2026-10-12 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.2778917941489434,
      "diversity": 0.1285714285714285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2555562656343132
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "across",
    "rank60": 151,
    "share15": 0.0012285012285012285,
    "share60": 0.004409171075837742,
    "total15": 406,
    "total60": 1700,
    "momentum": 0.2786240786240786,
    "diversity": 0.8571428571428571,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 198,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963244444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993874074074074
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2555562656343132
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.554
Log loss1.364
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0029771398192450825,
  "shareRatio": 1.0859783466688415,
  "totalAfter": 9405,
  "shareBefore": 0.002752083174069261,
  "totalBefore": 13081,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 28,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 36
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 26% that "across" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.28% → 0.30% (+8%). PARTIAL.

— "across" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash961dba5e07fcac88d2441e158a2935a3951efaf27e512db97fd3daa8954617b0
Previous hash89a1760612cbafc41a88980bf770b0358ff632bb103efd88232a91d1eb64df76