Ledger / Prediction #1949 · narrative · 6H

Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

100 of 1700 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (15 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.77×.

Made2026-10-12 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4493598410330986,
      "momentum": -0.2622285884615845,
      "diversity": -0.72
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.33782359927079103
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.045454545454545456,
    "share60": 0.059082892416225746,
    "total15": 406,
    "total60": 1700,
    "momentum": 0.7693351424694709,
    "diversity": 0.15,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 100,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 198,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963244444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993874074074074
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.33782359927079103
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 06:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.114

Log loss0.412

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.012333864965443912,
  "shareRatio": 0.2611279203032405,
  "totalAfter": 9405,
  "shareBefore": 0.04739698799785949,
  "totalBefore": 13081,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 116,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 620
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "money" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 4.74% → 1.23% (-74%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "money" (6H). diversity contributed -0.72 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9f2ac347a85ec3f73ff8f85da88e086b89014d8b4cd5d98cc6db4f829155e70f

Previous hashda024476928de193b49b978b08a7f5253026ab267a0702e138e9db572b59dc6b