Ledger / Prediction #1947 · narrative · 1H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 1700 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (19 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 1.69×.

Made2026-10-12 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 01:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": 0.5226013550478664,
      "diversity": -0.08571428571428567
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5975584078261353
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.028255528255528257,
    "share60": 0.01675485008818342,
    "total15": 406,
    "total60": 1700,
    "momentum": 1.686408896935213,
    "diversity": 0.6785714285714286,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 198,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963244444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963244444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5975584078261353
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 01:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.357

Log loss0.910

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01376421304608019,
  "shareRatio": 0.8442877528750106,
  "totalAfter": 1671,
  "shareBefore": 0.01636469900642899,
  "totalBefore": 1711,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 23,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 28
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.64% → 1.38% (-16%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "dog" (1H). momentum contributed +0.52 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5b7a976ddf6ef9977848ce46960db81ca556028fe6434aa13e7fd69375a9d698

Previous hash06da5d3fde9941d8202dda97bc11ea0b46a9e1d09d21ab4f77a602f6d63eb177