Ledger / Prediction #1942 · token · 6H

Will $inu still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 21m ago. X link. Rides hot term "inu". Creator launched 6 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "FD9ZGJ1BpKBPin5mN9FdkrfcmVv4ZCffeZqSvbbRpump",
    "name": "would you buy me if i was an",
    "symbol": "inu",
    "hotTerms": [
      "inu"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 21,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 6704.4872930446345,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 6
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 577,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 06:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T01:06:47.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3126.6460697427096,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 13781.813965521971,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 6704.4872930446345,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 13408.974586089269
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $inu would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,127, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $inu (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashef2293c1f877418702d9741f1b4f6d3c0b83795f349e7b975bafc616b8bea903

Previous hashb432ec2ff3380ca7aadf32f02591772e37719e4741a5c9da1c47a2f343310e1e