Ledger / Prediction #1939 · narrative · 24H

Will "macuck" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

71 of 1916 launches in the last hour referenced "macuck" (7 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 1.56×.

Made2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3979862946910822,
      "momentum": 0.4448595772139824,
      "diversity": -0.7816901408450704
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.43304896567616463
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "macuck",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.05819477434679335,
    "share60": 0.03729786124152321,
    "total15": 420,
    "total60": 1916,
    "momentum": 1.5602710828364035,
    "diversity": 0.09859154929577464,
    "launches15": 24,
    "launches60": 71,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 250,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988055555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999502314814814
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.43304896567616463
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 00:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.187

Log loss0.567

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016064747031072067,
  "shareRatio": 0.8218183881540455,
  "totalAfter": 49176,
  "shareBefore": 0.001955379649916366,
  "totalBefore": 42447,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 79,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 83
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "macuck" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.20% → 0.16% (-18%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "macuck" (24H). diversity contributed -0.78 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash912eba641e44e0de22c653456ab2a8835f429cbc3666428e1bb38f3a939b419f

Previous hashcc14ce2fb22ea346dc9a8cf5a3442726ab3c17bb7edcf563cdf7cd526a7328f7