Ledger / Prediction #1936 · narrative · 6H

Will "private" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1916 launches in the last hour referenced "private" (6 distinct creators, rank #236). Last 15m momentum 0.35×.

Made2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -1.0490654480982735,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.30891385101190405
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "private",
    "rank60": 236,
    "share15": 0.0011876484560570072,
    "share60": 0.003390714658320292,
    "total15": 420,
    "total60": 1916,
    "momentum": 0.3502649369632743,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 250,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988055555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999800925925926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.30891385101190405
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.095

Log loss0.369

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0014447884416924665,
  "shareRatio": 0.7590703687334873,
  "totalAfter": 9690,
  "shareBefore": 0.0019340920925388677,
  "totalBefore": 13443,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 26
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 31% that "private" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.19% → 0.14% (-25%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "private" (6H). momentum contributed -1.05 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6927c0f31b6c3658997885d92ff278d26a274b33e9f37ee7c3762d0a5cbb264a

Previous hash98a10b961711c0aa042a11f1e4dd3f844106301edb36d51260f2dddf8c0929cf