Ledger / Prediction #1932 · narrative · 1H

Will "yapr" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 19% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 1916 launches in the last hour referenced "yapr" (8 distinct creators, rank #129). Last 15m momentum 0.24×.

Made2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": -1.4285550698031773,
      "diversity": 0.1666666666666666
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18637778948374362
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "yapr",
    "rank60": 129,
    "share15": 0.0011876484560570072,
    "share60": 0.00495565988523735,
    "total15": 420,
    "total60": 1916,
    "momentum": 0.23965495686960872,
    "diversity": 0.8888888888888888,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 250,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988055555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988055555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18637778948374362
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 01:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.035

Log loss0.206

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.06174150973764687,
  "totalAfter": 1634,
  "shareBefore": 0.004694835680751174,
  "totalBefore": 1917,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 19% that "yapr" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.47% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "yapr" (1H). momentum contributed -1.43 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashcd4ceb9b768ff3d8db74b04a73515e7b5bd4615bd2cdc9618aaaafff3d589dd4

Previous hash66d895d7a665c31ba87db8d707d3582a3409fe12393eaf830f44fc5dc1bdc4ea