Will "tobey" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

75 of 1916 launches in the last hour referenced "tobey" (11 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.48×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4062075301653315,
      "momentum": 0.3904243706589654,
      "diversity": -0.7239999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4434015925123306
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tobey",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.05819477434679335,
    "share60": 0.03938445487741262,
    "total15": 420,
    "total60": 1916,
    "momentum": 1.4776077142093094,
    "diversity": 0.14666666666666667,
    "launches15": 24,
    "launches60": 75,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 250,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988055555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988055555555555
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4434015925123306
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04895960832313342,
  "shareRatio": 1.250776677400409,
  "totalAfter": 1634,
  "shareBefore": 0.03912363067292645,
  "totalBefore": 1917,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 80,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 75
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity