Ledger / Prediction #1930 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

77 of 1916 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (52 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.15×.

Made2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.41015512641293755,
      "momentum": 0.13602043857366283,
      "diversity": -0.0896103896103896
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.539061534599542
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.04631828978622328,
    "share60": 0.04042775169535733,
    "total15": 420,
    "total60": 1916,
    "momentum": 1.1457053099379357,
    "diversity": 0.6753246753246753,
    "launches15": 19,
    "launches60": 77,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 52
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 250,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988055555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988055555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.539061534599542
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 01:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.212

Log loss0.618

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04100367197062423,
  "shareRatio": 1.0217224030778338,
  "totalAfter": 1634,
  "shareBefore": 0.040166927490871154,
  "totalBefore": 1917,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 67,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 77
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.02% → 4.10% (+2%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf092554fb137bc789064c5c6ee11d8e00c79d8182cc2785fffe54b0df9a7df0e

Previous hash5d79c1c317085bc721a9c5521a5e030cc790c472cb589f3ec168c42e47b46f9f