Will "markets" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2068 launches in the last hour referenced "markets" (6 distinct creators, rank #192). Last 15m momentum 0.32×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -1.1306378537586839,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3314476531911624
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "markets",
    "rank60": 192,
    "share15": 0.0010141987829614604,
    "share60": 0.003141614306428226,
    "total15": 492,
    "total60": 2068,
    "momentum": 0.3228272741457326,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 268,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935447222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997310300925926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3314476531911624
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002331285856190071,
  "shareRatio": 1.1149127923108197,
  "totalAfter": 49329,
  "shareBefore": 0.002088368491447075,
  "totalBefore": 42617,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 115,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 89
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity