Ledger / Prediction #1921 · narrative · 24H

Will "pill" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

30 of 2068 launches in the last hour referenced "pill" (19 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 1.58×.

Made2026-10-11 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 23:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 23:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2687639203842082,
      "momentum": 0.4589318554586913,
      "diversity": -0.14000000000000004
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4984619768313463
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pill",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.02332657200811359,
    "share60": 0.014741420976317062,
    "total15": 492,
    "total60": 2068,
    "momentum": 1.5823828683536727,
    "diversity": 0.6333333333333333,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 30,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 268,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935447222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997310300925926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4984619768313463
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 23:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.249

Log loss0.690

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012974112590970828,
  "shareRatio": 0.9525456501738683,
  "totalAfter": 49329,
  "shareBefore": 0.001360959241617195,
  "totalBefore": 42617,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 64,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 58
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "pill" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.14% → 0.13% (-5%). PARTIAL.

— "pill" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash38057fe65ec5153948fefb1f4d0eca55a83832364a909e2ecf6fa3a5b33d97e0

Previous hashc9d30a86880fb63e903ad0b539b4e8e3168fdb3ac4deaf9dfab206743c629f37