Will "memecoin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
14 of 2068 launches in the last hour referenced "memecoin" (14 distinct creators, rank #54). Last 15m momentum 1.59×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.1544429125771737,
"momentum": 0.4649109465147493,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.585052043787491
},
"features": {
"term": "memecoin",
"rank60": 54,
"share15": 0.011156186612576065,
"share60": 0.007008216529724505,
"total15": 492,
"total60": 2068,
"momentum": 1.5918724207875776,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 5,
"launches60": 14,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 14
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 268,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9935447222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989241203703704
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.585052043787491
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.006465952717720751,
"shareRatio": 0.9852192224338749,
"totalAfter": 9898,
"shareBefore": 0.0065775049331287,
"totalBefore": 13683,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 64,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 90
}Predicted 59% that "memecoin" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.66% → 0.65% (-2%). PARTIAL.
— "memecoin" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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