Ledger / Prediction #1916 · narrative · 1H

Will "king" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2068 launches in the last hour referenced "king" (7 distinct creators, rank #145). Last 15m momentum 0.28×.

Made2026-10-11 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 23:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.2737386973993572,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22736187892152468
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "king",
    "rank60": 145,
    "share15": 0.0010141987829614604,
    "share60": 0.003624939584340261,
    "total15": 492,
    "total60": 2068,
    "momentum": 0.2797836375929682,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 268,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935447222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935447222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22736187892152468
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 00:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.052

Log loss0.258

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0017533606078316774,
  "shareRatio": 0.5664330218068535,
  "totalAfter": 1711,
  "shareBefore": 0.003370245546461242,
  "totalBefore": 2077,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 23% that "king" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.34% → 0.18% (-48%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "king" (1H). momentum contributed -1.27 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7dd77591dc5ee7d78d1cd4dc822f7a36377436f001b5a8f6da059e6781d35147

Previous hash0bbbd2060b07bd591de5231845fc2e2f99ac4d79211f92c8847487431bd2758e