Ledger / Prediction #1914 · narrative · 1H

Will "baton" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

32 of 2068 launches in the last hour referenced "baton" (28 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.71×.

Made2026-10-11 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 23:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27844469855484394,
      "momentum": -0.3421804933944137,
      "diversity": 0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4467685448346954
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "baton",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.011156186612576065,
    "share60": 0.01570807153214113,
    "total15": 492,
    "total60": 2068,
    "momentum": 0.7102200031206116,
    "diversity": 0.875,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 32,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 28
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 268,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935447222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935447222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4467685448346954
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 00:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.200

Log loss0.592

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.013442431326709527,
  "shareRatio": 0.8776599568655642,
  "totalAfter": 1711,
  "shareBefore": 0.015406836783822821,
  "totalBefore": 2077,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 23,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 32
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 45% that "baton" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.54% → 1.34% (-13%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "baton" (1H). momentum contributed -0.34 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd24107b3f620f84fd94b0aaec15b04de73fe567c11132a6a92f747bed78b5772

Previous hashe626e27bdde7d9c954565761e29f7643688b78962bbcf1ca0e7cfccd9132fdf3