Ledger / Prediction #1912 · token · 6H

Will $NftPerpCat still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 27m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "cat". Creator launched 5 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-11 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "3pEgy7rNhxumUutgHusNpEhCWRkNzH8jGP11rLhvpump",
    "name": "NftPerp Cat",
    "symbol": "NftPerpCat",
    "hotTerms": [
      "cat"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 27,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3081.5877488212227,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 5
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 655,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 05:01 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.062

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T22:34:33.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3062.754725442844,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3083.1714340958633,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3081.5877488212227,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6163.175497642445
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $NftPerpCat would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,063, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $NftPerpCat (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash54a698c875ab7471bb8311e25340494a38bfef4f5894b37af6065255f1856a0b

Previous hash41c13c69c6117c1e0bd9cf15573f8c48569a04cfa4053db58d0483b2da144f68