Will "trenchcat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

36 of 2130 launches in the last hour referenced "trenchcat" (31 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 0.39×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2961121539033014,
      "momentum": -0.9378702478770993,
      "diversity": 0.1333333333333334
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.36488765789682986
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "trenchcat",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.006704980842911878,
    "share60": 0.01712810886907555,
    "total15": 521,
    "total60": 2130,
    "momentum": 0.3914606623628825,
    "diversity": 0.8611111111111112,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 36,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 234,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965947222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998581134259259
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.36488765789682986
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00028307418565622663,
  "shareRatio": 0.18841869930193675,
  "totalAfter": 49457,
  "shareBefore": 0.0015443292697194467,
  "totalBefore": 42737,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 66
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity