Ledger / Prediction #1900 · narrative · 1H

Will "makin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2130 launches in the last hour referenced "makin" (4 distinct creators, rank #252). Last 15m momentum 1.11×.

Made2026-10-11 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.10739606008571749,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.46689750646110173
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "makin",
    "rank60": 252,
    "share15": 0.0028735632183908046,
    "share60": 0.002580947911778508,
    "total15": 521,
    "total60": 2130,
    "momentum": 1.1133751306165098,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 234,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965947222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965947222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.46689750646110173
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 00:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.218

Log loss0.629

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005216484089723526,
  "shareRatio": 0.3038676651815338,
  "totalAfter": 1917,
  "shareBefore": 0.0023408239700374533,
  "totalBefore": 2136,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 47% that "makin" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.05% (-78%). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on "makin" (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash49f8c2088b80a2db650c6b730da781d3f99208878b800842bc2a0f5ad354d72d

Previous hash27a46e7e565d25b69a0099ba2bdc33a73ee9eba321d767ba607d42d4c076aee8