Ledger / Prediction #1899 · narrative · 1H

Will "pfp" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 79% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

46 of 2130 launches in the last hour referenced "pfp" (29 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 4.08×.

Made2026-10-11 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3328805226082492,
      "momentum": 1.4066790442159784,
      "diversity": -0.1434782608695652
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7851747345523856
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pfp",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.08908045977011494,
    "share60": 0.021820741435945566,
    "total15": 521,
    "total60": 2130,
    "momentum": 4.0823754789272035,
    "diversity": 0.6304347826086957,
    "launches15": 46,
    "launches60": 46,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 234,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965947222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965947222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7851747345523856
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 00:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.617

Log loss1.538

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004173187271778821,
  "shareRatio": 0.2036675748707771,
  "totalAfter": 1917,
  "shareBefore": 0.02153558052434457,
  "totalBefore": 2136,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 46
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 79% that "pfp" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.15% → 0.42% (-81%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "pfp" (1H). momentum contributed +1.41 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 79% and wrong on "pfp". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash27a46e7e565d25b69a0099ba2bdc33a73ee9eba321d767ba607d42d4c076aee8

Previous hashce7c42f67582315448696a50b6c56cda5536d39da28a3e60707371d9a8c2730c