Ledger / Prediction #1897 · narrative · 1H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

79 of 2130 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (40 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.59×.

Made2026-10-11 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.41400149100493816,
      "momentum": -0.5267309420751034,
      "diversity": -0.2924050632911392
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.33067482461742514
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.022030651340996167,
    "share60": 0.03730642890661661,
    "total15": 521,
    "total60": 2130,
    "momentum": 0.5905323019831803,
    "diversity": 0.5063291139240507,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 79,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 40
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 234,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965947222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965947222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.33067482461742514
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 00:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.109

Log loss0.402

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.009389671361502348,
  "shareRatio": 0.25927492605636115,
  "totalAfter": 1917,
  "shareBefore": 0.03698501872659176,
  "totalBefore": 2136,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 18,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 79
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.70% → 0.94% (-75%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "dog" (1H). momentum contributed -0.53 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5a7ab3976c65e9ec977ab02e18b513c12e616638c5d9061dc8673062661ba0ac

Previous hash1ebf0f1327ffb46f54a722ae811b6984b3fc4ce6fc55d8511a22f80aeaf414f0