Ledger / Prediction #1892 · narrative · 24H

Will "jump" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2283 launches in the last hour referenced "jump" (3 distinct creators, rank #262). Last 15m momentum 1.23×.

Made2026-10-11 22:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 22:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.20391913906715808,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4284836696722899
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "jump",
    "rank60": 262,
    "share15": 0.002952755905511811,
    "share60": 0.0024080560420315237,
    "total15": 507,
    "total60": 2283,
    "momentum": 1.2261989978525412,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 263,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996202777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999841782407407
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4284836696722899
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 22:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.184

Log loss0.559

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0010535699813599157,
  "shareRatio": 0.6480294028008703,
  "totalAfter": 49356,
  "shareBefore": 0.001629802095459837,
  "totalBefore": 42950,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 52,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 70
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "jump" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.16% → 0.11% (-35%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "jump" (24H). diversity contributed -0.18 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2fa6db0a5742ce2a69bf65a8c61ad1b028f630759c2494c09608f0064340fccd

Previous hashfe9f435ca62163c73682ded61d2cee5b51dc2f2d3b532f67b2da331b0e9485a6