Ledger / Prediction #1888 · narrative · 6H
Will "wif" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 2283 launches in the last hour referenced "wif" (5 distinct creators, rank #169). Last 15m momentum 2.10×.
Made2026-10-11 22:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 04:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 22:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": 0.7410620711505223,
"diversity": -0.04285714285714284
},
"rawProbability": 0.5557850457469936
},
"features": {
"term": "wif",
"rank60": 169,
"share15": 0.006889763779527559,
"share60": 0.0032837127845884414,
"total15": 507,
"total60": 2283,
"momentum": 2.098162729658793,
"diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 263,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9996202777777777,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999367129629629
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5557850457469936
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 04:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.197
Log loss0.587
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.006070954278125593,
"shareRatio": 1.0637282360289129,
"totalAfter": 10542,
"shareBefore": 0.005715525973086384,
"totalBefore": 13822,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 64,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 79
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 56% that "wif" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.57% → 0.61% (+6%). PARTIAL.
— "wif" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
fca3c8f2020f0f3cdb784c137228b65bdd8f06224736539a22876dbe59cc025fPrevious hash
cd13ce1d12f0f007f109aa425cd0bb87aad36213ea3f84bc0b8d9a7cf59e68c1