Ledger / Prediction #1882 · narrative · 1H

Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

127 of 2283 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (16 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.18×.

Made2026-10-11 22:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 23:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 22:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.48521237610367357,
      "momentum": 0.16663119742995866,
      "diversity": -0.7488188976377953
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4020392672061936
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.06594488188976377,
    "share60": 0.055823117338003506,
    "total15": 507,
    "total60": 2283,
    "momentum": 1.181318511656631,
    "diversity": 0.12598425196850394,
    "launches15": 33,
    "launches60": 127,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 263,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996202777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996202777777777
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4020392672061936
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 23:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.162

Log loss0.514

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04427333974975938,
  "shareRatio": 0.7973761895330523,
  "totalAfter": 2078,
  "shareBefore": 0.05560420315236427,
  "totalBefore": 2284,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 92,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 127
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.56% → 4.43% (-20%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "money" (1H). diversity contributed -0.75 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash60eaa8b0246a37bf4850f32772021cdb8cafe0dad3356cf5fd314de4c6c8b0a5

Previous hash70dfe42a9a3c388f2ce47503404e143cc32db7c0346ff9940797b4b196da4ab7