Will "moonchacha" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2223 launches in the last hour referenced "moonchacha" (3 distinct creators, rank #330). Last 15m momentum 1.14×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.12925824707436767,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.416898319317681
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "moonchacha",
    "rank60": 330,
    "share15": 0.0028142589118198874,
    "share60": 0.0024730215827338128,
    "total15": 532,
    "total60": 2223,
    "momentum": 1.13798396725226,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 341,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968622222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999477037037037
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.416898319317681
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005926511260371395,
  "shareRatio": 0.4970250872456707,
  "totalAfter": 15186,
  "shareBefore": 0.0012083375289497532,
  "totalBefore": 9931,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 12
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity