Ledger / Prediction #1879 · token · 1H

Will $ISS still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 11m ago. X link, website, Telegram. Rides hot term "inu". Creator launched 5 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-11 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0.2,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07280096915005271
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "CKuRFCG7oz596123m9obEbz9SZ8D4YvFAs15ADTjpump",
    "name": "Inu Scared Shark",
    "symbol": "ISS",
    "hotTerms": [
      "inu"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 11,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": true,
    "descriptionLength": 34,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3090.56081813499,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 5
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 771,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.07280096915005271
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 23:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.005

Log loss0.076

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T21:49:25.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3088.392444301265,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3127.7743638908837,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3090.56081813499,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6181.12163626998
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $ISS would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,088, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $ISS (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdc5b02a880816541e3f3dcb725ae05b8d21d0cb91fe5501349d3a443c65babfb

Previous hashef36ba1416af9eee98b1092ca8f469755cd1e988571747dd42f55d6819395994