Ledger / Prediction #1874 · narrative · 24H

Will "supra" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 39% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

92 of 2257 launches in the last hour referenced "supra" (3 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.12×.

Made2026-10-11 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.436852599692241,
      "momentum": 0.10934558997429732,
      "diversity": -0.8608695652173912
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.38761806277386496
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "supra",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.0456989247311828,
    "share60": 0.040965456155890166,
    "total15": 557,
    "total60": 2257,
    "momentum": 1.1155478058703865,
    "diversity": 0.03260869565217391,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 92,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 310,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946433333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997768055555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.38761806277386496
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.150

Log loss0.490

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.014274144563676858,
  "shareRatio": 0.5169754739355558,
  "totalAfter": 49390,
  "shareBefore": 0.02761891477193472,
  "totalBefore": 43014,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 705,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 1188
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 39% that "supra" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 2.76% → 1.43% (-48%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "supra" (24H). diversity contributed -0.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5e44810f5da238228ef06a5bc8f098c298d7be9c2a8c45d4b5d829ee7ce818b0

Previous hash6e8462fa12bdf0172395d300bd33e071b873d3d4bfaaed8892a64a9474af641e