Ledger / Prediction #1872 · narrative · 6H

Will "called" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2257 launches in the last hour referenced "called" (4 distinct creators, rank #271). Last 15m momentum 1.84×.

Made2026-10-11 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.6094184219640263,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5420486732296668
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "called",
    "rank60": 271,
    "share15": 0.004480286738351254,
    "share60": 0.002435783879539415,
    "total15": 557,
    "total60": 2257,
    "momentum": 1.8393613554903878,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 310,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946433333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991072222222223
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5420486732296668
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 04:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.294

Log loss0.781

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0011033468186833395,
  "shareRatio": 0.8106378314156194,
  "totalAfter": 10876,
  "shareBefore": 0.0013814163152537444,
  "totalBefore": 13754,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 12,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 19
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "called" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.14% → 0.11% (-20%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "called" (6H). momentum contributed +0.61 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf161cf38af385a4d1f7885fa82463594aa0ebec56fe4641c99dbbf3aa2614566

Previous hash8c25469e7a25325c9f115f4d277848e2608b58e3dfa9e079e04737ef2a59365e