Ledger / Prediction #187 · narrative · 6H

Will "pepe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

46 of 2223 launches in the last hour referenced "pepe" (32 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.40×.

Made2026-10-09 14:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 20:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 14:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3328805226082492,
      "momentum": -0.906833684612408,
      "diversity": -0.06521739130434785
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.321383863220787
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pepe",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.008442776735459663,
    "share60": 0.020908273381294962,
    "total15": 532,
    "total60": 2223,
    "momentum": 0.4038007625733826,
    "diversity": 0.6956521739130435,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 46,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 341,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968622222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999477037037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.321383863220787
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 20:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.103

Log loss0.388

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005794811010140919,
  "shareRatio": 0.5011018480433111,
  "totalAfter": 15186,
  "shareBefore": 0.011579901319101802,
  "totalBefore": 9931,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 88,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 115
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 32% that "pepe" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.16% → 0.58% (-50%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "pepe" (6H). momentum contributed -0.91 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb77390604d4641fdc5551f2854761a255c8e7de5e4b1b80e66e2f2967121a585

Previous hash4002507c08c94bbef7802ee9153ffbdc5ab8c70316ad7d7d0c99b6a0f593d22a