Ledger / Prediction #1860 · narrative · 24H
Will "hat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 35% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 2173 launches in the last hour referenced "hat" (5 distinct creators, rank #277). Last 15m momentum 0.39×.
Made2026-10-11 21:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 21:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": -0.9440526526956976,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.3493207355298256
},
"features": {
"term": "hat",
"rank60": 277,
"share15": 0.000984251968503937,
"share60": 0.002529898804047838,
"total15": 507,
"total60": 2173,
"momentum": 0.3890479599141017,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 305,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9979941666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999164236111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3493207355298256
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 21:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.423
Log loss1.052
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.001600194454009601,
"shareRatio": 1.0248837575675738,
"totalAfter": 49369,
"shareBefore": 0.0015595903165735569,
"totalBefore": 42960,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 79,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 67
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 35% that "hat" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.16% → 0.16% (+3%). PARTIAL.
— "hat" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
a2856c9e731a8ea3ef300f34cb265f6bef433774c02d7804b5751c5ae057867aPrevious hash
b2f4775261aedb93852ae250d189f9fa24612e56929ecbdfe33388031457770a