Ledger / Prediction #186 · narrative · 6H

Will "button" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 2223 launches in the last hour referenced "button" (3 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.10×.

Made2026-10-09 14:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 20:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 14:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": 0.09354016447228831,
      "diversity": -0.823404255319149
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3599386695030014
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "button",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.02345215759849906,
    "share60": 0.021357913669064747,
    "total15": 532,
    "total60": 2223,
    "momentum": 1.0980547052434086,
    "diversity": 0.06382978723404255,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 341,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968622222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999477037037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3599386695030014
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 20:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.130

Log loss0.446

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005268010009219018,
  "shareRatio": 0.10588253738316292,
  "totalAfter": 15186,
  "shareBefore": 0.005236129292115597,
  "totalBefore": 9931,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 52
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 36% that "button" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.52% → 0.05% (-90%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "button" (6H). diversity contributed -0.82 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4002507c08c94bbef7802ee9153ffbdc5ab8c70316ad7d7d0c99b6a0f593d22a

Previous hashfcfc583e92a1b4880ae3fdb9be9c89b88965f302ce773ddaceb63f34b61d49cb