Will "agent" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
53 of 2325 launches in the last hour referenced "agent" (37 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 2.34×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3541281001677032,
"momentum": 0.8508290252684904,
"diversity": -0.062264150943396275
},
"rawProbability": 0.5674234357114055
},
"features": {
"term": "agent",
"rank60": 10,
"share15": 0.053858520900321546,
"share60": 0.02300085984522786,
"total15": 621,
"total60": 2325,
"momentum": 2.341587282507438,
"diversity": 0.6981132075471698,
"launches15": 33,
"launches60": 53,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 37
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 264,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9929830555555555,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997076273148148
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5674234357114055
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.00927243889544105,
"shareRatio": 0.9775510205605417,
"totalAfter": 49178,
"shareBefore": 0.009484181408214975,
"totalBefore": 43019,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 456,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 408
}Predicted 57% that "agent" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.95% → 0.93% (-2%). PARTIAL.
— "agent" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
b68af880fc8823f9f34206e532906fb9c796c121c6e4e4177245f022e97c8719532bc6ec012bb14dd2e13a938ccc7fb19c403873c29d1f4a854360ef3d8c97c5