Ledger / Prediction #1839 · narrative · 6H

Will "bond" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

37 of 2325 launches in the last hour referenced "bond" (5 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-11 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3002220000315186,
      "momentum": -2.99852287319688,
      "diversity": -0.7378378378378379
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.06266150908523295
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bond",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.0008038585209003215,
    "share60": 0.016122098022355976,
    "total15": 621,
    "total60": 2325,
    "momentum": 0.04986066452304394,
    "diversity": 0.13513513513513514,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 37,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 264,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929830555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988305092592593
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.06266150908523295
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.004

Log loss0.065

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004863481228668942,
  "shareRatio": 0.9919891871988649,
  "totalAfter": 11720,
  "shareBefore": 0.0049085229808121375,
  "totalBefore": 13446,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 57,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 66
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that "bond" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.49% → 0.49% (-1%). PARTIAL.

— "bond" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8edeb966edcbde22407f5c9048b45db6a93a30b3e346e22470d8f94568a143c8

Previous hash422f188f360b0f1ea850d5247e96d40518fb3db42f3fc57eae9da8f71c545886