Will "trends" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2512 launches in the last hour referenced "trends" (6 distinct creators, rank #240). Last 15m momentum 0.98×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -0.01892054865593313,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4636178753988707
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "trends",
    "rank60": 240,
    "share15": 0.0025380710659898475,
    "share60": 0.002586549940310386,
    "total15": 590,
    "total60": 2512,
    "momentum": 0.9812573213588441,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 267,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960355555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998348148148148
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4636178753988707
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0002458714092529607,
  "shareRatio": 0.5146278578987669,
  "totalAfter": 48806,
  "shareBefore": 0.0004860998587995648,
  "totalBefore": 43201,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 12,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 21
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity