Will "bond" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

33 of 2512 launches in the last hour referenced "bond" (4 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 2.86×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28306044735485697,
      "momentum": 1.0493863905168477,
      "diversity": -0.7545454545454545
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49723770101917314
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bond",
    "rank60": 16,
    "share15": 0.03807106598984772,
    "share60": 0.013330680461599681,
    "total15": 590,
    "total60": 2512,
    "momentum": 2.855898174104099,
    "diversity": 0.12121212121212122,
    "launches15": 22,
    "launches60": 33,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 267,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960355555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998348148148148
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49723770101917314
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0038519854116297178,
  "shareRatio": 1.6121028414293546,
  "totalAfter": 48806,
  "shareBefore": 0.0023842040693502465,
  "totalBefore": 43201,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 188,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 103
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity