Ledger / Prediction #1823 · narrative · 6H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 2512 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (40 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 1.12×.

Made2026-10-11 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 20:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": 0.1170026174120599,
      "diversity": 0.21627906976744185
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5397241550495099
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.0194585448392555,
    "share60": 0.0173099880620772,
    "total15": 590,
    "total60": 2512,
    "momentum": 1.1241223719781395,
    "diversity": 0.9302325581395349,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 40
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 267,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960355555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993392592592593
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5397241550495099
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 02:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.212

Log loss0.617

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.020539367120313935,
  "shareRatio": 1.22880533390652,
  "totalAfter": 11977,
  "shareBefore": 0.016711429424052522,
  "totalBefore": 13404,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 246,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 224
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "dog" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.67% → 2.05% (+23%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "dog" (6H). volume contributed +0.32 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3f36b63524fa4e7ea09ac5e84fd8eba3b18d6ff9200dd860a6134c1dd1421e0f

Previous hash2929ebe85e8007af460e1ef1dcdb8f82c9d769738dff810a630be8d577183c62