Ledger / Prediction #1822 · narrative · 6H
Will "wtf" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
95 of 2512 launches in the last hour referenced "wtf" (4 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 2.87×.
Made2026-10-11 20:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 02:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 20:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.441665846874966,
"momentum": 1.054955496452536,
"diversity": -0.8494736842105263
},
"rawProbability": 0.5381763935153373
},
"features": {
"term": "wtf",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.10913705583756345,
"share60": 0.03800238758456029,
"total15": 590,
"total60": 2512,
"momentum": 2.871847343662795,
"diversity": 0.042105263157894736,
"launches15": 64,
"launches60": 95,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 267,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9960355555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993392592592593
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5381763935153373
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 02:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.290
Log loss0.773
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.006095015446272022,
"shareRatio": 0.810408162090269,
"totalAfter": 11977,
"shareBefore": 0.007535064159952253,
"totalBefore": 13404,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 73,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 101
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 54% that "wtf" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.75% → 0.61% (-19%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "wtf" (6H). momentum contributed +1.05 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
2929ebe85e8007af460e1ef1dcdb8f82c9d769738dff810a630be8d577183c62Previous hash
ea951862c04f6980eff7de028ee6abcc038fdb4039668e4fb0c7ac915ad76f42