Ledger / Prediction #1821 · narrative · 6H

Will "live" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

187 of 2512 launches in the last hour referenced "live" (18 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.73×.

Made2026-10-11 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 20:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5432506056630729,
      "momentum": 0.5509284155595187,
      "diversity": -0.7844919786096257
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4792072309496286
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "live",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.12944162436548223,
    "share60": 0.07461201750895344,
    "total15": 590,
    "total60": 2512,
    "momentum": 1.7348629441624366,
    "diversity": 0.0962566844919786,
    "launches15": 76,
    "launches60": 187,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 267,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960355555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993392592592593
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4792072309496286
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 02:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.230

Log loss0.652

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.015112298572263505,
  "shareRatio": 0.7738019702788446,
  "totalAfter": 11977,
  "shareBefore": 0.019546404058490004,
  "totalBefore": 13404,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 181,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 262
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 48% that "live" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.95% → 1.51% (-23%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "live" (6H). diversity contributed -0.78 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashea951862c04f6980eff7de028ee6abcc038fdb4039668e4fb0c7ac915ad76f42

Previous hashe0f50035c07c1c3d0f232b4f82ae8499f55758d839b16348798909ba421cd4d7