Will "sand" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 2289 launches in the last hour referenced "sand" (19 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": -2.991004960189404,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14265743574514478
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sand",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.0008445945945945946,
    "share60": 0.016812227074235808,
    "total15": 591,
    "total60": 2289,
    "momentum": 0.05023692523692524,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 277,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940922222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997538425925926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.14265743574514478
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00006221097816394667,
  "shareRatio": 0.07780358327803583,
  "totalAfter": 48223,
  "shareBefore": 0.0009213405505009789,
  "totalBefore": 43415,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 40
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity