Will "bro" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 2289 launches in the last hour referenced "bro" (6 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.59×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": -0.5249014373645002,
      "diversity": -0.7285714285714286
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3171026417551504
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bro",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.01097972972972973,
    "share60": 0.018558951965065504,
    "total15": 591,
    "total60": 2289,
    "momentum": 0.5916136724960254,
    "diversity": 0.14285714285714285,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 277,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940922222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997538425925926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3171026417551504
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002281069199344711,
  "shareRatio": 0.7864268459966796,
  "totalAfter": 48223,
  "shareBefore": 0.002902222734078084,
  "totalBefore": 43415,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 110,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 126
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity