Will "fan" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2289 launches in the last hour referenced "fan" (7 distinct creators, rank #183). Last 15m momentum 0.77×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -0.2566374507698207,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4416873994655996
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fan",
    "rank60": 183,
    "share15": 0.002533783783783784,
    "share60": 0.0032751091703056767,
    "total15": 591,
    "total60": 2289,
    "momentum": 0.7736486486486487,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 277,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940922222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990153703703704
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4416873994655996
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003213883978788366,
  "shareRatio": 0.2556554074992253,
  "totalAfter": 12446,
  "shareBefore": 0.0013738483917892356,
  "totalBefore": 12374,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 17
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity