Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

94 of 2289 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (62 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.88×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4400785304753855,
      "momentum": -0.12774643770180047,
      "diversity": -0.1085106382978724
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.47597388152308806
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.036317567567567564,
    "share60": 0.04126637554585153,
    "total15": 591,
    "total60": 2289,
    "momentum": 0.8800765050765049,
    "diversity": 0.6595744680851063,
    "launches15": 21,
    "launches60": 94,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 62
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 277,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940922222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9940922222222223
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.47597388152308806
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03405940594059406,
  "shareRatio": 0.8272313489447961,
  "totalAfter": 2525,
  "shareBefore": 0.0411968777103209,
  "totalBefore": 2306,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 86,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 95
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity