Ledger / Prediction #1777 · narrative · 24H

Will "rocky" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

64 of 2326 launches in the last hour referenced "rocky" (31 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.41×.

Made2026-10-11 19:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 19:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 18:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3824167756388357,
      "momentum": -0.8864083177241745,
      "diversity": -0.31875
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3292960206798928
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "rocky",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.011423550087873463,
    "share60": 0.02771809196390202,
    "total15": 568,
    "total60": 2326,
    "momentum": 0.4121333496818845,
    "diversity": 0.484375,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 64,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 258,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971536111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998814004629629
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3292960206798928
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 19:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.108

Log loss0.399

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00041665798629195226,
  "shareRatio": 0.2795962762203204,
  "totalAfter": 48001,
  "shareBefore": 0.001515986769570011,
  "totalBefore": 43536,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 20,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 66
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "rocky" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.15% → 0.04% (-73%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "rocky" (24H). momentum contributed -0.89 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd2880d217934cc6f03070857e6118519d8eab6b176bd5b61ba09cba8796f1dde

Previous hashf9deadc73fbc0c0b55337c0ff2f069fbf9404cfeb794a8ea386da3c7d3d8fe3e