Will "marcia" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 2326 launches in the last hour referenced "marcia" (28 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 1.31×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": 0.2677309551577243,
      "diversity": -0.19999999999999996
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4962242702597453
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "marcia",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.027240773286467488,
    "share60": 0.020842286205414697,
    "total15": 568,
    "total60": 2326,
    "momentum": 1.3069954523218525,
    "diversity": 0.5833333333333334,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 28
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 258,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971536111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995256018518518
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4962242702597453
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.009648520492794342,
  "totalAfter": 12746,
  "shareBefore": 0.00402380752787325,
  "totalBefore": 11929,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 48
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity