Will "trump" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

81 of 2326 launches in the last hour referenced "trump" (35 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.38×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4177516863357507,
      "momentum": -0.9772452705285914,
      "diversity": -0.3814814814814815
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22426630704209263
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "trump",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.013181019332161687,
    "share60": 0.0350236355822948,
    "total15": 568,
    "total60": 2326,
    "momentum": 0.37634640473546316,
    "diversity": 0.43209876543209874,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 81,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 35
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 258,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971536111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9971536111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22426630704209263
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007774140752864157,
  "shareRatio": 0.22820580375625732,
  "totalAfter": 2444,
  "shareBefore": 0.03474903474903475,
  "totalBefore": 2331,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 19,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 81
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity