Ledger / Prediction #1768 · token · 6H

Will $PROJECT 6 still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 29m ago. X link, website. No hot term. Creator launched 146 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-11 18:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 18:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "GS1NNBKjJV1DSSm83nF3orHLiF9fNMWMgB8m2ihc9Lh5",
    "name": "Ash Dykes",
    "symbol": "PROJECT 6",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 29,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3085.1989330114557,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 146
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 810,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 00:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": null,
  "marketCapUsd": 3085.1989330114557,
  "athMarketCapUsd": null,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3085.1989330114557,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6170.397866022911
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $PROJECT 6 would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,085, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $PROJECT 6 (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd2e3fb21ad51da49425b6c01d1c18179f9f5c24581b5e32e8d7f880591334991

Previous hashe59fe7f8f790d43b674ac2896c216c804ed0313ee833c555e184338bf02897f9