GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1761 · narrative · 24H

Will "justice" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

83 of 2291 launches in the last hour referenced "justice" (48 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 2.23×.

Made2026-10-11 18:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 18:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.42141040430437465,
      "momentum": 0.8038962987796261,
      "diversity": -0.2060240963855422
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5522192151845887
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "justice",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.08139534883720931,
    "share60": 0.03643106457242583,
    "total15": 558,
    "total60": 2291,
    "momentum": 2.2342292159866317,
    "diversity": 0.5783132530120482,
    "launches15": 45,
    "launches60": 83,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 48
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 236,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918672222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996611342592593
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5522192151845887
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 18:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.305
Log loss0.803
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.004673778634753631,
  "shareRatio": 0.8369415312247745,
  "totalAfter": 47713,
  "shareBefore": 0.005585441226965778,
  "totalBefore": 43685,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 223,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 244
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "justice" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.56% → 0.47% (-16%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "justice" (24H). momentum contributed +0.80 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashacb6cdb2336c4ededacbc82d5a7ca6f7b1011402db83d925d5f58b8f72c25e97
Previous hashbb17fbc3035d7309e922bb630a0aa6a666b8c345318f639d8fd28b0d02f4de16