Will "launchblitz" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 28% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

19 of 2142 launches in the last hour referenced "launchblitz" (4 distinct creators, rank #42). Last 15m momentum 0.45×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.200250160009851,
      "momentum": -0.794336620188136,
      "diversity": -0.6473684210526316
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2848096964487042
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "launchblitz",
    "rank60": 42,
    "share15": 0.004111842105263158,
    "share60": 0.009099393373775081,
    "total15": 607,
    "total60": 2142,
    "momentum": 0.45188090418353577,
    "diversity": 0.21052631578947367,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 19,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 246,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949347222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997889467592592
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2848096964487042
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001177633377494585,
  "shareRatio": 0.6095001385928267,
  "totalAfter": 47553,
  "shareBefore": 0.001937984496124031,
  "totalBefore": 43860,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 56,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 85
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity