Ledger / Prediction #1744 · narrative · 6H
Will "agent" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 40% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
22 of 2142 launches in the last hour referenced "agent" (21 distinct creators, rank #29). Last 15m momentum 0.55×.
Made2026-10-11 18:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 00:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 17:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.22224068113863232,
"momentum": -0.6009652272075965,
"diversity": 0.24545454545454548
},
"rawProbability": 0.4029257921713019
},
"features": {
"term": "agent",
"rank60": 29,
"share15": 0.005756578947368421,
"share60": 0.010499300046663556,
"total15": 607,
"total60": 2142,
"momentum": 0.54828216374269,
"diversity": 0.9545454545454546,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 22,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 21
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 246,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9949347222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999155787037037
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4029257921713019
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 00:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.357
Log loss0.909
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.011232611768206502,
"shareRatio": 1.402457256703066,
"totalAfter": 13443,
"shareBefore": 0.007991475759190196,
"totalBefore": 11262,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 151,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 90
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 40% that "agent" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.80% → 1.12% (+41%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "agent" (6H). momentum contributed -0.60 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
20d92b10876502baf744977d4a2dbe8712456142b7df77602c0b2101f8866a15Previous hash
8974782288264eb23bed3d55b2531122638caa08ead7e3533916f561a97ea47f