Ledger / Prediction #1743 · narrative · 6H

Will "chad" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

34 of 2142 launches in the last hour referenced "chad" (19 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.15×.

Made2026-10-11 18:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 17:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28753839182730917,
      "momentum": -1.8757071024217398,
      "diversity": -0.22941176470588232
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.17188785428455067
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chad",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.0024671052631578946,
    "share60": 0.016098926738217452,
    "total15": 607,
    "total60": 2142,
    "momentum": 0.15324656750572083,
    "diversity": 0.5588235294117647,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 34,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 246,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949347222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999155787037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.17188785428455067
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 00:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.030

Log loss0.189

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00037194078702670533,
  "shareRatio": 0.12287315283149855,
  "totalAfter": 13443,
  "shareBefore": 0.003285384478778192,
  "totalBefore": 11262,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 37
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "chad" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.33% → 0.04% (-89%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "chad" (6H). momentum contributed -1.88 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8974782288264eb23bed3d55b2531122638caa08ead7e3533916f561a97ea47f

Previous hash8e80b892d54c0c39babc94e76683e9a2c4cfbcb24d12cece7ab5e801f0e3a1f3