Ledger / Prediction #1741 · narrative · 6H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

86 of 2142 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (54 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.16×.

Made2026-10-11 18:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 17:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4267364075729111,
      "momentum": 0.14954678684418118,
      "diversity": -0.14651162790697672
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.500210024126918
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.046875,
    "share60": 0.040363975734951006,
    "total15": 607,
    "total60": 2142,
    "momentum": 1.161307803468208,
    "diversity": 0.627906976744186,
    "launches15": 28,
    "launches60": 86,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 54
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 246,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949347222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999155787037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.500210024126918
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 00:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.250

Log loss0.694

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.041211039202558954,
  "shareRatio": 0.9548700819172095,
  "totalAfter": 13443,
  "shareBefore": 0.043153969099627064,
  "totalBefore": 11262,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 554,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 486
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "cat" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 4.32% → 4.12% (-5%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9a4c9c3aa241e56bdd1d4af4a2c62b683c4ba8a6020d91aed0ece5fedbb597b4

Previous hash36161dd0ba0b29a3605f3d5645c677549c44a2fd62f66669a7d11be0da8a65c3